Escalation Below the Threshold of War
On May 29, 2026, the history of NATO’s eastern flank took a dramatic turn. A Russian drone, which according to official reports “accidentally” deviated from its course during an attack on Ukrainian ports, struck a densely populated area of Galați in Romania. The sight of a burning residential building and injured civilians on NATO territory is a scenario that experts have warned about for years. This is no longer just a “breach of airspace”; it is real human and material losses under the NATO umbrella.
From Terespol to Łódź Voivodeship: Lessons from September 2025
Before the tragedy in Galați occurred, warning signals were coming from Poland. On the night of September 9-10, 2025, an unprecedented scale incident took place. Between 19 and 23 Russian drones simultaneously entered Polish airspace. Although initially reported only as a border incident in Terespol, wreckage of Russian weapons was found much deeper in the country—even in the Łódź Voivodeship. The scale of this incursion suggested that it was not a navigational error of a single pilot, but rather a mass test of Poland’s air defense system and Warsaw’s political will.
“The incident in Galați is a dangerous escalation that requires concrete steps from NATO, not just expressions of concern,” these words from a senior official in Bucharest, quoted by Polsat News, reflect the current mood in the capitals of the eastern flank.
The Baltic States Caught in the Grips of Hybrid War
Alongside events in Poland and Romania, the Baltic States—Lithuania and Latvia—were also dealing with their own series of violations. Russian Shahed drones, launched from Belarus, regularly crossed borders, landing in fields or hitting civilian infrastructure. Experts from the Atlantic Council highlight that we are dealing with a so-called “salami tactic”—a gradual shift of the West’s tolerance boundaries. Russia is testing how far it can go before it meets with a kinetic response from the Alliance.
Article 4 vs. Article 5: Survival Mechanisms
The key to understanding the current situation is the distinction between two fundamental pillars of the Washington Treaty. Article 4 states that member states will consult each other whenever they believe that the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any party is threatened. This is a powerful diplomatic tool that became the foundation of the debate in Brussels following the attack on Galați in May 2026.
Article 5, on the other hand, is the “nuclear option” of diplomacy—the principle of collective defense, stating that an armed attack against one member is an attack against all. However, to trigger it, two conditions must be met: the attack must be deemed an intentional armed assault, and the decision to activate it must be reached through consensus among all 32 member states. Currently, NATO is avoiding this step by classifying the strikes in Galați or the incidents in Poland as technical errors to avoid direct military confrontation with the Russian Federation.
Prospects: Deterrence or De-escalation?
Within NATO, a clear divide is emerging. Eastern flank countries are demanding the right to actively destroy targets still over Ukrainian territory or immediately after crossing the NATO border, without waiting for “confirmation of intent.” Conversely, the headquarters in Brussels, supported by some Western European capitals, advocates for de-escalation. They fear that shooting down a Russian object could be used by the Kremlin as a pretext for open conflict.
Summary: A New Security Reality
The incident in Galați in May 2026 and earlier events from Poland and the Baltic States show that the security of NATO borders has become illusory in the face of modern hybrid warfare. Russia has ceased to respect the inviolability of borders, treating them as a testing ground. Without developing clear rules of engagement that would allow for the neutralization of threats before they strike residential buildings, Article 5 may remain only a theory, while “accidental” bombs continue to fall on Alliance cities.